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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2020–Mar 17th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Avalanches will become more likely as the snow heats up, especially on slopes getting hit by the sun.

Confidence

High - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings clear dry conditions for the week.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear, light northwest wind, freezing level drops from 2300 m to 1700 m overnight with mountain top temperatures staying above freezing.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, light northeast wind, treeline temperatures around +3 C, freezing level around 1700 m.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, light northeast wind, treeline temperature around +3 C, freezing level around 1500 m.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny, calm, treeline temperature around +3 C, freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Over the weekend a few wind slab avalanches were human triggered, including a size 2 slab on a northeast slope on Brunswick Mtn, a size 1 slab on a west slope on the Lions, and a size 1 slab on a southeast slope in Tetrahedron.

Looking forward, loose wet avalanche activity and cornice falls could be triggered with the ongoing warming trend. The potential of triggering wind slab avalanches remains possible in steep alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Surface conditions are highly variable with a mix of crusts, moist snow, and hard wind slabs. The warm air coupled with strong radiation from the sun has potential to rapidly weaken the snowpack and cornices.

In the alpine, hard wind slabs may be found on all aspects due to variable wind directions. In sheltered terrain, about 30 cm of settled snow may overly a melt-freeze crust and potentially small surface hoar crystals. The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled. The snowpack depth varies from around 300-400 cm around 1200 to 1400 m and tapers rapidly with elevation, with no snow below 700 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.