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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2020–Mar 16th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

The sunny skies and warmer spring temperatures could start to weaken solar aspects and cornices. Best skiing can be found in sheltered areas.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Sunny and warm for Monday with a daytime high of -1c in the alpine along with light NW winds. No snow is forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Two new avalanches size 2 on west aspects were observed off of Mt. Buller.

Snowpack Summary

The wind slabs (numerous generations) still dominate the landscape in the Alpine and open areas at Treeline. While becoming less sensitive to human triggering, be cautious in steep, convex and unsupported terrain. The mid-pack remains quite strong, and by contrast, the basal facets are still weak. The deep persistent slabs are more of a concern in shallow snowpack areas and rocky outcroppings.

Monday afternoon is suppose to be sunny and -1c in the alpine. Watch for moist snow on solar aspects as the heat can be intense.  

This heat could also make the triggering of some features more sensitive. This sudden warming trend can sometimes be the temperature trigger for cornices. Keep your distance from large cornices.

Terrain and Travel

  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.
  • Caution around slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.