Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2024–Feb 2nd, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Freezing levels arn't dropping significantly until friday night. Be patient while the avalanche hazard remains elevated from the ongoing heat.

Recent warm weather and avalanche activity has created rugged and hazardous backcountry travel conditions.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity tapered yesterday with a few loose wet avalanches reported below treeline. Although natural avalanche activity is tapering, the snowpack will remain unstable until the temperatures really cool down friday night.

Previous widespread avalanche activity over the past week produced numerous natural avalanches at all elevations. This included some impressive avalanches up to size 3.5 at higher elevations, as well as loose wet up to size 2.

Snowpack Summary

Previous Strong S and SW winds created wind slabs in the alpine areas where snow is still dry for transport.

Previous high freezing levels, rain, and solar radiation has formed a surface crust up to 2500m. Below 2100m 5-10cm of moist snow surface snow turns to a fully saturated snowpack around 1900m.

Persistent weak layers formed in early January are down 20-30cm in sheltered areas. Well developed facets and depth hoar make up the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Friday

Mainly cloudy. Alpine temperature: High -1 °C, with freezing level at 2100 metres. Ridge wind west: 10 km/h.

Saturday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries (trace). Alpine temperature: Low -10 °C, High -6 °C and freezing level at 1500 metres. Light ridge wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
Stick to non-avalanche terrain or small features with limited consequence.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.