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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2024–Feb 17th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Banff Yoho Kootenay, Banff, East Side 93N, Kootenay, Lake Louise, LLSA, Sunshine, West Side 93N, Field.

Use caution at high elevations, particularly where the snowpack (and the February 3 crust) is thin.

Watch for increasing winds and rising alpine temperatures Saturday that may have the potential to to increase slab development and sensitivity.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 and 2.5 skier-triggered deep persistent slab in the Cirque Forepeak area occurred Tuesday showing that the deeper layers can still be triggered in thin snowpack areas and at high elevations.

Further to the west, skiers triggered a size 2.5 slab at 3050m on Mt Vaux Thursday while boot-packing. Luckily there were no injuries. Again: use caution at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

10- 20 cm of snow sits over the Feb 3 crust found in most locations (except above 2500m on north aspects). At low elevations, this crust is a sign of the stabilization that occurred during the warming event. Where it is thin: consider the snowpack to be largely as it was before the warming. Persistent weak layers remain present in the mid and bottom of the snowpack and have recently produced avalanches on the ground in thin areas at high elevations (ie where the Feb 3 crust is thin).

Weather Summary

A ridge of high pressure persists over the region through Saturday. Clear skies will bring cold nights (TL temps -20C) and a cool day. Watch for moderate south winds to bring rising temperatures likely setting up a temperature inversion.

As winds shift west, clouds will invade on Sunday bringing a chance of flurries. Temperatures will rise slightly with TL overnight lows near -10C.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
  • Be especially cautious near rock outcroppings, on steep convexities and anywhere the snowpack feels thinner than average.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.