Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Jan 25 – 26, 2024Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Rain at lower elevations continues to saturate the snowpack; while at higher elevations new snow is being redistributed by strong alpine winds.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A layer of facets over a crust is buried down 50 to 100 cm and may still be rider-triggerable on alpine slopes with inconsistent snowpack depth.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Storm and wind slab formation continue at higher elevations where precipitation has fallen as snow.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Rain at lower elevations continues to saturate the upper snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We anticipate a natural avalanche cycle has occurred and/or continues, particularly in areas where precipitation has changed from snow to rain throughout the storm.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain or wet snow continues to saturate the upper snowpack at lower elevations. At higher elevations recent snow has buried a melt-freeze crust.

The remainder of the snowpack is strong with numerous hard melt-freeze crusts.

Treeline snow depth ranges from 100 to 180 cm. Snow depth diminishes rapidly at low elevations where rain has prevailed for much of the winter.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with 10 to 30 mm of rain or snow at higher elevations, southwest alpine winds 40 to 60 km/h, treeline temperature +1 °C. Freezing levels 1400 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 mm of rain or snow at higher elevations, southwest alpine winds 40 to 50 km/h, treeline temperature +2 °C. Freezing levels 1500 m.

Friday

Cloudy with 2 to 10 mm of rain or snow at higher elevations, south alpine winds 60 to 70 km/h, treeline temperature +2 °C. Freezing levels 2500 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 mm of rain, south alpine winds 50 to 60 km/h, treeline temperature +5 °C. Freezing levels 2200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Regions covered