Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 24th, 2024–Jan 25th, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Rain at lower elevations continues to saturate the snowpack; while at higher elevations new snow is being redistributed by strong alpine winds.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We anticipate a natural avalanche cycle has occurred and/or continues, particularly in areas where precipitation has changed from snow to rain throughout the storm.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain or wet snow continues to saturate the upper snowpack at lower elevations. At higher elevations recent snow has buried a melt-freeze crust.

The remainder of the snowpack is strong with numerous hard melt-freeze crusts.

Treeline snow depth ranges from 100 to 180 cm. Snow depth diminishes rapidly at low elevations where rain has prevailed for much of the winter.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with 10 to 30 mm of rain or snow at higher elevations, southwest alpine winds 40 to 60 km/h, treeline temperature +1 °C. Freezing levels 1400 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 mm of rain or snow at higher elevations, southwest alpine winds 40 to 50 km/h, treeline temperature +2 °C. Freezing levels 1500 m.

Friday

Cloudy with 2 to 10 mm of rain or snow at higher elevations, south alpine winds 60 to 70 km/h, treeline temperature +2 °C. Freezing levels 2500 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 mm of rain, south alpine winds 50 to 60 km/h, treeline temperature +5 °C. Freezing levels 2200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
Avoid terrain traps such as gullies and cliffs where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.