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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2026–Jan 6th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Bull, Crowsnest North, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Wind slabs remain the primary concern with fresh, loose snow available and continued strong winds at higher elevations.

Weak layers deep in the snowpack persist in shallow areas.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, skiers witnessed a large natural avalanche near Crowsnest Pass, see the MIN here.

Over the weekend, storm snow was reactive to rider traffic and produced natural avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 20 cm of new snow covered a variety of older snow surfaces, including surface hoar in terrain sheltered from wind. Expect to find wind-affected snow in exposed terrain at higher elevations.

Approximately 40 to 80 cm of recent snow continues to settle above a melt-freeze crust that is thin or absent in alpine terrain, while thicker and widespread at treeline and below.

Near the bottom of the snowpack, a series of crusts exists with associated faceted snow.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Mostly cloudy. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C. Freezing level 700 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy. Up to 5 cm of snow. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C. Freezing level 700 m.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C. Freezing level 600 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy. 5 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -9 °C. Freezing level 400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been affected by wind.
  • Avoid thin areas like rocky outcrops where you're most likely to trigger avalanches on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.