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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 20th, 2021–Dec 21st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Strong wind will increase all day Tuesday. Watch for changing conditions as wind slabs will become more reactive.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

An Arctic ridge of high pressure will continue to build from the Yukon into the B.C interior bringing clear skies and cold conditions across the province with outflow winds through Tuesday morning. Abundant moisture from the Pacific will invade the province starting on Tuesday night. 

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear skies / Strong to extreme northwest wind / Low of -16 at 2000 m.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness / Flurries 3-5 cm / Strong west wind / High of -12 at 2000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Snow 20-30 cm / Strong to extreme southwest wind/ High of -7 at 2000 m.

THURSDAY: Flurries / Moderate southwest wind / High of -14 at 2000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose dry and storm slabs avalanches (size 1-2) have released naturally at all elevations on steep terrain features after the last storm.

If you go out in the mountains, please consider filling out a Mountain Information Network report.

Snowpack Summary

20-40 cm of recent new snow has been redistributed by Southwest winds during the last storm, creating wind slabs on North and East facing features. As the wind shifts to the Northwest, expect to see fresh wind slabs developing on slopes that have not seen them yet.

The concerning layer within the snowpack is the early December facet/crust combo which is now buried between 60-100 cm down. This layer generally exists below 1800 m and is most concerning in the area west of Blue River. In some places, the crust starts to decompose and show sporadic test results.

Terrain and Travel

  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
  • Avoid shallow snowpack areas, rock outcroppings and steep convex terrain where triggering is most likely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.