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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2020–Feb 15th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

New flurries and wind will contribute to ongoing slab development. The most reactive deposits will be around ridgetop and in wind-loaded terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries, 5-10 cm. Alpine high temperature -5 C. West wind 15-35 km/hr.

SATURDAY: Flurries, 5-15 cm with the heaviest snowfall amounts expected around Kootenay Pass. Alpine low temperature -9 C. West-southwest wind 20 gusting to 50 km/hr.

SUNDAY: Continued flurries, 5-10 cm. Alpine low temperature -10 C. West-northwest wind 25 gusting to 55 km/hr.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine low temperature -11 C. Northwest wind 15-40 km/hr.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive work Wednesday produced size 1.5-2 wind slab and cornice avalanches. Several small (size 1) natural and skier-triggered wind slab avalanches have been reported on east/northeast aspects in the alpine over the past few days. At least one of these occurred near treeline and was reported to have slid on a crust buried around 20 cm below the surface.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and wind will further wind slab development in lee features at alpine and upper treeline elevations. The new snow is failing of a variety of surfaces: hard windslabs around ridgetops and northerly alpine features, soft slabs and 10-15 cm lower density snow in sheltered terrain, a thin sun crust on solar aspects, and scoured features in exposed terrain.

A thick rain crust to mountain top sits below 25-45 cm of recent storm snow in the east of the region and 40-100 cm in the west. Recent avalanches slid on the crust or released within the storm snow. However, recent information indicates the bond at the crust is improving. Weak facet/crust layers near the base of the snowpack have not been an active avalanche problem recently. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • Recent new snow may be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.