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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 3rd, 2022–Feb 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Carefully assess the amount of new snow throughout the day. Consider the hazard to be high if more than 30cm is observed. Forecasted snowfall amounts vary greatly across the Island.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: stormy weather with light precipitation and moderate west winds gusting to strong. Freezing level around 1200m.

 Friday: stormy weather with light to heavy precipitation. Precipitation amounts vary greatly throughout the island. Mt Washington will likely only see 5cm, 5040 Peak could see as much as 50cm. Freezing levels will likely rise to 1500m. Winds will be strong from the west.

Saturday: no new snow expected. Moderate northwest winds in the morning shifting to southwest in the afternoon with freezing levels around 1500m.

Sunday: No new snow expected. Moderate to strong winds from the southwest and freezing levels around 1100m.

Avalanche Summary

Since Sunday's storm, there have been several reports of small dry loose sluffs in steep terrain (see this MIN report from Mt Allan Brooks). Several storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5 were also reported on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

The storm on Friday will form new storm and wind slabs at treeline and above. A crust can be found down 20 to 40cm that extends to mountain tops.

Terrain below treeline will experience rain and warm temperatures saturating the snow surface.

The mid and lower snow pack is well settled but shallow at low elevations leaving many hazards just below the surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.