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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2022–Feb 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Are certain you know the recent history of that steep open slope? Did it already avalanche? Or, was it previously beaten up by the wind, the sun or heavy skier traffic?

If the answer is no, it's probably best to give it a miss.

Weather Forecast

A couple low pressure systems moving inland, give light snow Thursday, and a more substantial snowfall Friday.

Tonight: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine Low -17*C. Light SW ridgetop wind

Thurs: Flurries (5cm). High -6*C, moderate SW winds

Fri: Snow (20cm). Low -8*C, high -6*C. Mod-extreme SW winds

Sat: Isolated flurries, Strong W wind, High -7*C

Snowpack Summary

10-20cm of low density new snow is now hiding the slabby 30-50cm that fell with mod-strong SW winds on Monday. This overlies various drought interfaces: the Jan 29 surface hoar (5-15mm) on all sheltered/shady slopes, wind effect/crust in exposed areas, and a suncrust on solar aspects. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5-2.5m.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche control in the Cougar Corner and Abott paths on Wednesdays, produced several slab avalanches, up to size 2.0.

On Tuesday, a crew on Abbott were able to easily ski cut sz 1-1.5 slab avalanches on convexities.

On Monday, natural activity occurred at all elevations, with widespread storm slabs failing on the Jan 29th layer.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.