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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2022–Feb 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Avalanche danger will increase this weekend as new snow and wind will form unstable slabs at upper elevations. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy skies, no precipitation, moderate to strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries starting in the morning and 5-15 cm of snow by the late afternoon, strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing another 10-25 cm of snow, wind easing off throughout the day with mostly light northeast gusts, treeline temperatures drop to -15 C throughout the day.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate wind from the northeast, treeline temperatures around -18 C.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity over the past few days has been limited to small (size 1) slab and loose avalanches in steep alpine terrain. With the incoming storm we could expect to see larger wind slabs form at upper elevations. 

Snowpack Summary

New snow will form some isolated wind slabs at upper elevations and bring 5 to 15 cm of low density snow in sheltered terrain. Roughly 5 to 15 cm of snow sits above hard wind-affect snow and melt-freeze crusts in most terrain, except north-facing terrain at treeline where there may still be soft snow. Some small surface hoar may be found above the crust in sheltered terrain. A buried surface hoar layer can be found 15 to 30 cm deep on north-facing slopes around treeline. Although this layer has been reactive in snowpack tests, avalanches have not recently been triggered on this layer. The snowpack below is well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer found near the bottom of the snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.