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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2022–Mar 28th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Watch for changing conditions throughout the day as you move through elevation bands.

Elevated freezing levels and afternoon sun increases potential for wet avalanche activity, while storm snow at higher elevations is expected to remain sensitive. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with 5-10 cm of snow above 1800 m. Accumulations favour the Brandywine area. Moderate southwesterly winds. 

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with flurries possible. freezing levels remain elevated around 2000 m. Light northeast winds.

TUESDAY: Mostly clear with increasing cloud. Light southwesterly winds. Freezing levels approach 2000 m. 

WEDNESDAY: Freezing levels fall to 1200 m. A mix of sun and cloud with moderate westerly winds. Light snowfall. 

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, small loose wet avalanches were naturally triggered by raised freezing levels and short periods of sunshine. At higher elevations new storm slabs were triggered to size 1, reactive to human triggers. Similar activity is expected to continue on Monday. 

A large avalanche was reported on a steep alpine slope near Blackcomb on Thursday, likely failing on the mid February weak layer, now buried around 80 cm deep. While the trigger is unknown, it's likely that warming and strong sun had weakened the snowpack. 

Snowpack Summary

Freezing levels have remained around 2000 m for the last few days, as a result moist snow exists below on all aspects. Above 2000 m, storm slabs result on wind affected surfaces in shaded alpine areas, and on a sun crust on south facing slopes. Storm accumulations near Whistler range from 15-30 cm, with higher accumulations north of the Jervis Inlet. 

70 to 110 cm overlies the mid March interfaces. This layer exists as surface hoar in shady, wind-sheltered areas and a hard crust on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine. Several other weak layers exist in the upper and mid snowpack, reports suggest these layers are bonding well and avalanche activity is unlikely except from large loads like cornice falls. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.