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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 7th, 2022–Mar 8th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Fresh snow arrives overnight with moderate wind. Find the best riding and safest avalanche conditions in wind-sheltered terrain. If you venture up into more exposed elevations, watch for reactivity in pockets of freshly wind-loaded snow.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

An upslope system will bring enhanced snowfall to the eastern slopes of the Rockies Monday night. Greatest snowfall amounts will be near the Waterton border.

Monday night: Snowfall 15-20 cm on the eastern slopes of the range, 5-10 cm elsewhere. Light to moderate northeast ridgetop wind. Alpine temperature around -12 °C. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Tuesday: Flurries bringing up to 5 cm. Light wind. Alpine high around -10 °C.

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light wind. Alpine high around -15 °C.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Strong northwest ridgetop wind easing to light. Alpine high around -7 °C.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, explosive control work near Elkford produced cornice, storm slab and loose dry avalanches size 1.5-2.5 on north aspects in the alpine. Good visibility allowed observation of 2-3 day old storm slabs up to size 2.5 in the Castle backcountry. In neighboring Waterton National Park, ski cuts produced storm slabs and loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5.

On Friday and Saturday, avalanche activity was predominantly loose dry up to size 1.5.

Snowpack Summary

10-25 cm of low density snow is forecast to fall by the end of the day Tuesday, favoring the eastern slopes of the range. The new snow arrives with some wind so watch for freshly loaded pockets of wind slab in leeward terrain features at upper elevations. It falls on a crust on steep south facing slopes and below 1500 m.

Last week's snowfall amounts varied widely through the region with as much as 50 cm in the south and as little as 10 cm in the north. Below 2100 m, a rain crust exists embedded within this snow. Below, a variety of old surfaces include a sun crust on solar aspects, and potentially weak, sugary crystals in shady areas.

The middle and lower snowpack are generally well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer from early December found near the ground. It is currently considered dormant but could become active later this season. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.