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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 29th, 2022–Mar 30th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Avalanche danger will increase with daytime warming, and spike quickly if it starts to rain mid-day.

Start your day early, and be ready to scale back your exposure as soon as the surface crust breaks down.

Weather Forecast

A cold front Weds brings light precip followed by cooling temps

Tonight: Increasing cloud. Alpine Low -3*C, Freezing level (FZL) 800m

Wed: Scattered flurries/rain showers (5-10cm/mm), High -2*C, FZL 2000m, light SW ridgetop winds

Thur: Isolated flurries, Low -10*C, High -7*C, FZL 1200m, moderate W wind

Fri: Mainly cloudy, Low -9*C, High -5*C, FZL 1500m

Snowpack Summary

Diurnal temp swings control the upper snowpack - fast travel on a crust in the AM, sticky wet snow in the PM (scale back terrain use for the latter). Recent slab avalanches have failed in the upper snowpack, near the base on the the Dec. 1st crust/facet combo, and on the ground. On high N aspects, 20cm of dry snow has formed pockets of slab.

Avalanche Summary

Daytime warming Tuesday triggered a natural cycle of large to very large avalanches, and heli bombing also produced several size 2-3 results.

Rain Monday triggered a large-very large natural cycle, and allowed for good artillery control results (up to size 3.5).

Glide cracks have been reactive recently, avoid exposure to these unpredictable features.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.