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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2016–Jan 4th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

There's a lot uncertainty regarding the timing and intensity of snowfall forecast for Monday. When it does arrive, new wind slabs are expected to form.

Weather Forecast

There is a ton of uncertainty with the weather pattern over the next 48 hours as models are disagreeing on the timing, track and intensity of precipitation. The region could see anywhere from 0cm to 20cm between Monday and Tuesday. Ridgetop winds should be mainly moderate from the southeast. Freezing levels should sit around valley bottom on Monday, and rise gradually to about 1000m by Wednesday. My recommendation would be to check spotwx.com on Sunday night or Monday morning for the most up-to-date model runs.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed. Looking forward, new wind slab activity is expected in higher elevation lee terrain over the next few days. The expected size and distribution of new wind slab avalanches is really tough to pin down at this point due to uncertainty in the weather forecast.

Snowpack Summary

The last few days of clear skies, solar radiation, and warm air trapped at higher elevations have promoted settlement in the snowpack, and have helped to strengthen many near-surface instabilities. More recent cooling has formed a melt-freeze crust on steep solar aspects. Continued strong and variable winds have created a fairly widespread wind effect in exposed alpine terrain, and lingering wind slabs may remain reactive to the weight of a rider on isolated slopes. In more sheltered terrain a new layer of well-developed surface hoar has also formed. The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-settled.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.