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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 2nd, 2015–Apr 3rd, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Deep persistent weaknesses are still producing avalanches. Big alpine features cannot be trusted.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Around 5 cm of snow is expected Friday afternoon through to Saturday morning, before things start to dry out with a mix of sun and cloud on Sunday. Daytime high freezing levels are expected to hover around 1600 m for the forecast period. Moderate southwesterly alpine winds are expected on Friday then light but gusty southwesterlies for Saturday before shifting to southeasterlies on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days, several natural cornice falls and wind slab avalanches to Size 2 were observed in the north of the region. Two of of the larger avalanches possibly stepped-down to the mid-March persistent weakness on north facing alpine slopes. Also reported were several loose sluffs to Size 1.5 in response to sun-exposure on south aspects.

Snowpack Summary

20-30 cm of low density storm snow is sitting on a strong and supportive rain crust buried last Saturday that extends as high as 2100m. West through southwesterly winds have shifted these new accumulations into touchy wind slabs in exposed terrain. A facet/crust persistent weakness buried mid-March is down approximately 50-100 cm and recently produced moderate sudden results in snowpack tests where it was found down 55 cm near the Duffey Lake Road. This remains the chief concern amongst avalanche professionals in the region due to it's potential for very large avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.