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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 13th, 2018–Dec 14th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect for this region. Expected warm and sunny weather on Friday may have a destabilizing effect on the snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Light snow, 2-4 cm.FRIDAY: Sunny. Strong southwesterly winds. Freezing level around 1800 m. Light snow Friday night.SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Winds becoming light to moderate southwesterly. Freezing level around 900 m.SUNDAY: Flurries. Freezing level rising to around 1800 m. Moderate or strong southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from the Fernie and Corbin areas on Wednesday showed numerous storm slab releases, both natural and explosives-triggered. Slabs ranged from 20-80 cm in depth, depending on wind effect, with sizes generally from size 1.5-2. Size 2 would be classified as 'large'. These all occurred from about 1700-2000 metres and were focused on north to east aspects due to strong southwest winds.Another recent notable avalanche was a size 2 human triggered avalanche on December 2nd in Cornice Bowl north of Fernie. It occurred on a northwest facing feature at 2300 m and ran on a crust layer. There are good photos in this MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Around 40 cm of new snow has fallen in this region. The new snow has buried an old snow surface that was noted earlier in the week for a cover of large, weak surface hoar crystals as well as hard wind slab and some sun crusts. Beneath the new snow and old surface, the snowpack has been stuck in early season conditions, hovering at roughly 100 cm of depth in alpine areas and much less at lower elevations. See the snow profile in our field team's MIN report for a visual representation of the pre-storm snowpack here. Aside from storm slabs now blanketing the surface, a primary concern is the combination of weak facets and crusts in the bottom half of the snowpack. The crust is most prevalent at and above treeline and is likely most problematic on north-facing features, especially those that are large and planar in nature. A layer of large surface hoar can also be found at similar depths in some areas, as found in a recent MIN report here.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.