Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today you are likely to encounter two significant avalanche problems: wind slab and storm slab. Both of these problems are growing in size and will continue that trend. More snow on the way, warming temperatures, and increased winds will cause the avalanche hazard to rise.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Today you are likely to trigger a wind slab in the middle and upper elevations (above 7,000 feet) throughout the advisory area. You will encounter this problem on multiple aspects throughout this terrain. Throughout the past 48 hours, we've had winds blowing from nearly every direction, except N and NE. This leads to loading leeward terrain, which will vary dramatically from one ridgeline to another. Yesterday, we traveled in the Grass Mountain zone and encountered light winds out of the E/SE for most of the day. The Granite Mountain weather station (just several miles away) reported W/NW winds during that same time period.

    Winds are expected to ramp up during the next 48 hour period and our wind slab problem is expected to increase in likelihood as well as destructive size. Currently, these slabs could bury, injure, or kill a person. Expect these wind slabs to become thicker (larger size), easier to encounter, and more reactive (higher likelihood). As you're traveling in the mountains, tune into clues in your environment (think drifts, pillows, scoured snow surfaces, and cornices). Give yourself a wide buffer from wind-affected terrain during the next several days. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Today, you're likely to encounter instabilities within the recent storm snow. These problems could be found at interfaces within the new and older snow, or density changes within recent snow. Since Monday, we've received 15-20" of medium-density snow, measuring 2-2.5 " SWE. Our advisory area is forecasted to receive an additional 10-20" of new snow, 2-2.5" SWE throughout the next 48 hours. The temperatures are slowly warming and are expected to continue that trend until Friday night. All of this new snow is going to be a lot of weight to add to our snowpack. (A lot of stress in a short period of time, humans don't like that, snowpack doesn't like that). 

    As with the wind slab problem, the storm slab avalanche problem is expected to increase during the next 48 hour period. These avalanches will become larger and easier to trigger. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making will be critical throughout this next storm cycle. Be aware of red flags and obvious signs of instability (think shooting cracks, collapsing, or recent avalanche activity). Be aware of small changes in the terrain, such as convexities like this one (pictured to the right). These subtle changes in slope angle can catch people by surprise and even a small avalanche can send a skier or rider into trees and other unwanted places.

    (1/5/2022)

    Small, intentionally-triggered storm slab

    SS-ASc-R1-D1

    Photo: Kevin Studley

Avalanche Discussion

This information is sponsored by Brundage Mountain Resort...Thank you for supporting the Payette Avalanche Center!

Currently, we're smack dab in the middle of another multi-day storm cycle. Patience is the name of the game during and after these storm events. The avalanche hazard has been increasing throughout the week and is expected to continue increasing heading into the weekend. Sunday and Monday we had strong winds across the advisory area. These winds deposited the low-density surface snow into dense wind slabs. Since Monday, we've received 15-20" of medium-density snow, measuring 2-2.5 " SWE. The winds have since shifted and blown from nearly every direction. We are expected to receive another heavy dose of precipitation through Friday night, along with above-average temperatures. This new, heavy snow will be coupled with strong winds. Expect the wind slab problem and storm snow instabilities to become more significant over the next few days. Our snowpack is undergoing a big stress test right now and backcountry travelers need to exercise caution and respect the dangerous avalanche conditions while traveling through the mountains for the next several days.

 

*** Check out our Observations Page to see what others are seeing...We are always looking for more Information from snowmobilers and skiers on snow and weather conditions. These observations help our forecasts and they help other users in and outside of the community.

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