Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack is generally stable.  Be careful traveling in previously wind drifted, high consequence terrain.  Old stiff slabs may be lurking in previously wind drifted features on high elevation slopes that face north or east. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    In the snow-starved Southeast Mountains, a few pockets of previously drifted slabs exist on the northern half of the compass above treeline.  The problem is both difficult to trigger and rare to find.  You are most likely to encounter a lingering instability on a high elevation slope that faces to the north or east.  That's where previous wind drifting overlaps with early-season weak layers.  Use extra caution in steep, consequential terrain if you find a strong over weak structure.   Cracking or collapsing snow are warning signs of the problem.

    This avalanche in Redwell Basin ran during a storm on November 11th.  It illustrates our lingering concern for thick, windrifted slabs to fail on weak snow near the ground.  

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's storm brought about 3 to 6 inches of low-density snow to the Northwest Mountains and an angry inch or two to the Southeast Mountains.  Skiers yesterday reported shallow sluffing in the new snow (Example A, Example B). If you are riding in the snow-favored corner of the Northwest Mountains, anticipate more small sluffs today with the potential for a few thin soft slabs near alpine ridgelines where the winds have kissed or drifted the fluffy new snow.  These instabilities will be harmless in size unless they push you over above rocks or cliffs.   

Harmless surface instabilities will be more common and easy to recognize, but our primary concern is the isolated potential for a more dangerous avalanche breaking on older snow layers. An observer yesterday reported some collapses near Paradise Divide, suggesting that not all buried weak layers have made peace with the recent lull in significant loading.  Although most avalanche-prone slopes have become stable with slabs rotting away and weak layers adjusting below heavily drifted slabs, continue to use caution around anomalously fat drifts where the snowpack feels or looks noticeably deeper than its surroundings.   This concern is larger and more common in the Northwest Mountains. 

The hazards posed by today's conditions are relatively benign compared to what will develop once our current snowpack gets tested by a significant storm.   Although the danger is low, there are still issues that require your attention, especially if you are riding in extreme or high-consequence terrain.   

 

Regions covered