The avalanche hazard has decreased overnight and will increase as the day warms. As temperatures rise above freezing and snow surfaces melt, the snow could transition from stable to unstable. Once the warming has affected the snow, backcountry travelers could trigger wet slab avalanches up to 3 feet deep and wet loose avalanches on a variety of aspects and elevations. This morning at the upper elevations, skiers and riders could still trigger isolated dry snow slabs, these slabs will also become more sensitive to triggers with the warming temperatures. Backcountry travelers should monitor the snow’s surface and as it becomes damp avoid steep avalanche terrain.
Although unlikely, there remains a chance that a slab avalanche with depths up to 8 feet could occur. To initiate one of these slides, the trigger would most likely be a larger impact such as a snowmobile or a cornice drop. At the mid and lower elevations, slab depths would be smaller like up to 4 feet in depth. In areas with a shallow snowpack, this hazard could increase as the day warms.
Another day of high pressure and clear skies is forecast for tomorrow. Expect temperature inversions again in the morning that are to start just a few degrees warmer than today. Highs temperatures are also forecast to be slightly warmer. Winds are to be light and variable. In the Tetons the avalanche danger will be Low in the morning and Moderate in the afternoon. As temperatures soften and weaken the upper portion of the snowpack, the possibility of human triggered slab avalanches will develop, particularly in very steep and extreme terrain. Hazards associated with warm sunny days will also increase, including wet slides and a possibility of cornice failure. In the Southwest Trails area, where weak layers remain more of a problem, the danger will increase from Moderate to Considerable. Increasing temperatures will weaken the snowpack, allowing the possibility for human triggered slab avalanches that could be small in isolated terrain features or very large and destructive in steep avalanche paths. Wet slides will also become possible especially in areas where the snowpack is very steep and shallow. On Togwotee Pass, the snowpack is generally weaker with a significant portion of the lower snowpack containing preserved weak, sugary snow. Human triggered avalanches could occur. These could fail to the ground, especially in the afternoon when the warmest temperatures of the week are forecast. The danger rating there will be Considerable above 8000 feet and Moderate below that elevation.
