Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will increase today as we continue to accumulate more snow. Look for areas of wind drifted snow deeper than 6" on North through East aspects. Wind Slab avalanches today have the potential to break into weak faceted layers creating a more destructive Persistent Slab avalanche. Avoid traveling on or below slopes greater than 30 degrees that show obvious signs of wind loading and keep an eye out for signs of instability such as audible collapses and shooting cracks. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Our Persistent Slab avalanche problem will exists on North through East aspects near and above tree line. An overall shallow snowpack has undergone a tremendous amount of faceting over a two week period of high pressure. Wind sheltered slopes near tree line will be fully faceted to the ground with 3mm well developed depth hoar being the major concern. Slopes that saw pevious strong winds from just before Christmas have weak faceted layers underneath hard slabs of varying densities and thickness. 

    We are extremely well connected and uniform with our weak layers at the moment despite the inconsistencies on the surface. Adding a more uniform slab on top of this structure will increase the likelihood of triggering an avalanche into these buried weak layers. Persistent Slab avalanches will have the potential to be triggered from a distance and from lower angle terrain. These avalanches could be large enough to bury, injure or kill a person, especially as we continue to accummulate more and more snow.

     

    An overall weak shallow snowpack is just missing the addition of a more cohesive slab to produce destructive avalanches.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    We received 2 to 4 inches of new snow overnight and are forecast to get an additional 3 to 5 inches during the day. Winds are currently blowing 15-20mph with gusts into the 30's out of the Southwest. These winds will increase the concern for Wind Slabs on North through East aspects on slopes that have 6 inches or more of drifted snow. These fresh slabs are forming on a variety of surfaces from hard slabs, crusts, to faceted snow and may not be bonding well to these interfaces. Slopes greater than 30 degrees and that have 6 inches or more of new snow should be avoided. Wind slab avalanches will have the potential to break into buried weak layers creating a more destructive Persistent Slab avalanche. 

Avalanche Discussion

We recieved 2 to 4 inches of new snow overnight. A winter storm is forecast to bring up to 10 inches of additional snowfall by Tuesday evening. As we accumulate more and more snow, our avalanche danger will increase making human-triggered avalanches likely. Moderate to strong winds will increase the liklihood this morning in areas where you find drifted snow deeper than 6 inches. If by this afternoon we see the upper end of the forecasted snowfall amounts we could see this hazard become a bit more widespread. As we build a new cohesive slab on top of our poor snowpack structure the concern for Persistent Slab avalanches will also increase. 

Nearly two weeks of high pressure has driven a significant period of faceting in our overall shallow snowpack that is the major cause for concern right now. In many areas prior to this incoming storm we simply lacked a cohesive slab over these weak layers to produce avalanches. Strong winds from before Christmas created hard slabs of varying densities and thickness in exposed areas near and above tree line. These hard slabs were keeping our avalanche danger at moderate because they still showed the ability to propogate but the inconsistency and lack of uniformity meant that it was hard to find one of those slabs well connected enough to produce a large avalanche. What's changing now is that we are going to remove that inconsistency by adding a more uniform slab of new snow on top that's better connected across our terrain. This simply translates to an increasing likelihood of being able to communicate propogation. The uniformity in our weak layers also means that these avalanches will be able to be triggered from a distance and have the potential to propogate wide distances. As always, when we are dealing with persistent weak layers that are being stressed by an additional load, it will take some time for our snowpack to adjust to the changes.

Use careful snowpack evaluation and cautious route-finding to help steer clear of the developing hazard. Avoid traveling on or under slopes greater than 30 degrees on North through East aspects as we continue to accumulate snow. Signs of instability such as audible collapses and shooting cracks are great indiciations that you should dial back your terrain selection. 

We've also updated the Conditions Blog! This update covers the conditions nessecary for driving the faceting process and why we'll be living with this concern for the foreseeable future. Go check it out!

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