If the sun comes out on Tuesday, recent storm snow and cornices may release naturally. Cornice falls may trigger deeply buried weak layers resulting in very large avalanches.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Scattered flurries overnight with light northwest winds and freezing levels down to valley bottoms. On Tuesday, light westerly winds with light precipitation and freezing levels up to 1700 metres during the day with periods of broken skies. On Wednesday, expect 3-5 cm of new snow with moderate southwest winds and a good overnight freeze. Cloudy with freezing levels rising to 1500 metres during the day. On Thursday, continued cloudy with moderate-strong westerly winds and 5-8 cm of new snow.
Avalanche Summary
An early report on Monday of another skier remote triggered avalanche size 2.5 from 200 metres away on a southeast aspect at 2320 metres, believed to have released on the February 27th weak layer. A MIN report from Monday at Gorman lake in the Dogtooth range describes "a lot of cornice failures", as well as "many slides running full path." On Sunday, large cornice releases triggered persistent slabs on slopes below up to size 3.0 in the central part of the region, and a group of skiers remotely triggered a size 2.5 from 6 metres away on a southeast aspect at 2400 metres in the north of the region. On Saturday several natural and explosive initiated cornice failures to size 2.5 were reported. In the north of the region on friday control work produced several size 2 to 3 persistent slab avalanches on high elevation north through east facing features. These avalanches were failing on the mid and early February persistent weak layers.
Snowpack Summary
At ridgetop, cornices are huge and remain weak. Old wind slabs still linger on lee features at treeline and in the alpine which may become more reactive with solar radiation. 40-90cm below the surface you'll find a persistent weak layer comprised of surface hoar, facets and/or a thick crust. This layer seems variably reactive. In other words, it's still reactive to human triggers in some places while in other spots it's really tough to trigger, and there's not much of a reliable pattern telling us what exact aspects are most suspect. I'd continue to be suspicious of steep, unsupported features at treeline and in the alpine as this layer has the potential to produce large avalanches. Deeper weak layers from mid-February and early January are now down 50-90cm and 70-120cm respectively. Triggering an avalanche on either of these layers has become unlikely but still has the potential to produce very large avalanches in isolated locations with a heavy trigger or significant warming.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.