Presidential Range

Falling ice and crowds of people will create significant and unpredictable hazards in Tuckerman Ravine today. Tips to minimize hazards:

• Congregate low on the floor of Tuckerman Ravine, well away from Lunch Rocks and the base of the Headwall. Lunch Rocks doesn’t provide adequate protection from falling ice.
• Keep away from openings in the snow. The hole in the snowpack formed by the waterfall in the Lip grows to nearly 100’ deep. Falling in is likely to be fatal. The hole beginning to open lower down the slopes is around 70’ deep.
• Crampons and an ice axe will increase your security in the steeper boot ladders. Be prepared to dodge falling people and dropped objects.

Large natural or human-triggered avalanches are unlikely today though loose, wet sluffs will be a regular occurance. Sluffs will form flowing channels of slush in steep terrain. The runnels formed by the moving snow will add another obstacle in the fall line of many of the steeper, well travelled runs. On less travelled steep slopes, be sure to keep the debris flow ahead of you.

The summer Lionhead Trail is open for travel and is a better alternative to the winter route. 

The lower half of Sherburne ski trail is mostly rocks and mud and is now CLOSED at the rope, currently located across the trail at crossover 5. Skiing is marginal to that point and even worse past the rope.

If you are like one of the many people I spoke to yesterday who discount the danger of falling ice, imagine this. You are standing on the edge of a road, and someone drives by at 50 mph and lobs a 10 pound block of ice out of the window. Or even a fancy round ice cube. Either will cause you significant harm. Now imagine a piece the size of a refrigerator. 

Fortunately, people don’t frequently drive around chucking ice out the window. As the person walking on the side of the road, you may have no control over the frequency of this event, if you need to walk along the road. If you are skiing in steep terrain, you have total control over your exposure to this situation. The most experienced steep skiers, mountaineers and climbers that I know who are truly familiar with the danger of ice fall, don’t allow this high consequence, low probability hazard threaten them or their party, especially when the hazard is so easily avoided. You can sit on your backpack with great views of the action low in the floor and avoid this hazard entirely.

Here are some other things to consider if you plan to come to Tucks today:

• If anyone in your party needs to be littered out, your party or bystanders will need to assist with the litter handling all the way to Pinkham. Rescue resources are limited at Hermit Lake. 
• The Little Headwall and streambed above are mostly melted out. No one was able to find a way to ski out yesterday. Plan on walking back to Hermit Lake.
• Hillman’s Highway is one of the longest runs with the least amount of walking and has very few objective hazards currently.
• Left Gully is a good option for those new to skiing in Tucks’ steep terrain. The top and your first turns are very steep.
• Lobster Claw is really narrow now. Right Gully remains a good option but a couple of rocks below the mouth are a threat.
• The Lip is still skiable but adjacent moats and the waterfall hole increase the hazard there. 
• See this video for a look at yesterday’s conditions which will be similar to those found today.

 Warm temperatures accelerate the typical spring hazards which include: 

• Moats and other deep melt holes 
• Waterfall holes 
• Opening streams and undermined snow 
• Glide cracks 
• Falling ice and rock

The snowpack at all elevations has changed dramatically over the past couple weeks due to warm temperatures and rain followed by unseasonably cold weather and then more significant melting. If you have a backcountry skiing skill set, many great skiing options exist today other than Tuckerman Ravine.

• The lower half of Sherburne ski trail contains long sections of  mud and rocks. A rope across the ski trail at crossover #5 signals the closed trail below. Cross over and walk down the Tuckerman Ravine trail at this point. 
• Increased streamflow from rain and melting snow last week has undermined snow and weakened snow bridges over stream beds. 
• The waterfall holes and moats near rocks are growing large enough to fall into in the Headwall area of Tuckerman Ravine. The main waterfall hole and the “Open Book” ice climb hole below are both over 75’ deep. Smaller versions of these moat and ice cliff hazards exist in other ravines and gullies in the range so assess your line carefully.
• Rotten snow off trail can be knee to hip deep when not solidly frozen. 
• The Little Headwall has melted and turned back into a waterfall with open water upstream. The safest way down from Tuckerman Ravine is hiking down the Tuckerman Ravine Trail to Hermit Lake.

Wet slab concerns over this warming spell, are mostly limited to the recent snow on the upper snowpack. Warming, wetting and freezing cycles at the end of March have likely stabilized deeper weak layers, significantly reducing our concerns for a deep wet slab. This is the season when snow rangers have to spend most of their time in Tuckerman Ravine so field time elsewhere is very limited. Northern parts of the range received much more snow in two recent upsloping events, now over a week ago, which, combined with observations of cold snow temps, creates some uncertainty around the existence of larger slabs. If they are around, they could turn wet and slide. Given the warm air temps the last few days, this seems unlikely but be sure to assess if you head that way.

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Your avalanche, snowpack, or weather observations are extremely valuable to the forecasters at MWAC. Help create a more accurate avalanche forecast by submitting your observations here. 

Listen to the weekly MWAC Outreach Podcast provided by Ski The Whites. Discussions include snowpack information, weekend outlook, and general avalanche related info. 

The Harvard Cabin is now closed for the season. There is no access to the breezeway at HoJos.

Please Remember:

• Safe travel in avalanche terrain requires training and experience. This forecast is just one tool to help you make your own decisions in avalanche terrain. You control your own risk by choosing where, when, and how you travel.
• Avalanche danger may change when actual weather differs from the higher summits forecast.

For more information contact the US Forest Service Snow Rangers, AMC visitor services staff at the Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, or the caretakers at Hermit Lake Shelters or seasonally at the Harvard Cabin (generally December 1 through March 31). The Mount Washington Ski Patrol is also available on spring weekends.