Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Anticipate rising hazard throughout the day as additional loading from new snow and wind increase the size, depth, and likelihood of avalanches. Steer around wind loaded slopes 35 degrees and steeper at upper elevations, and use caution as the icy crust underlying recent snow remains a good sliding surface for avalanches. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Expect another 3-6in of new snow to accumulate by Saturday afternoon bringing snow totals over the past week up to 1ft+. Triggering an avalanche large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person will be possible on upper elevation, wind-loaded slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Previously formed wind slabs still need time to stabilize, and fresh slabs will grow in size and distribution with new snow and wind. Pay attention as you transition into wind affected terrain and look and feel for sudden changes in snow surface texture and hardness. Fresh slabs rest atop slick and variable surfaces, and even weak, sugary snow in isolated areas. Look for obvious signs of instability like recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and collapses, and dial back your terrain choices if these red flags are present. Carefully assess how new snow has bonded to old snow surfaces as you travel using hand pits and small test slopes. Seek out lower angled and wind-sheltered terrain to reduce your risk.

    (1/26/2021) A human triggered wind slab on Mt Herman on a west aspect just below 6000ft. The avalanche broke 1-2ft deep, 25ft wide, and ran 200ft downslope. Photo: Francis Neff (West North Zone)

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    In areas sheltered from the wind, the incoming low-density snow will likely remain cohesionless. Loose snow avalanches or sluffs may run downhill on their own or easily be triggered by riders in steep terrain. These avalanches could run far and fast, and entrain enough snow to knock you off your feet, carry you into rocks or trees, or bury you in confined terrain. They may even trigger slab avalanches. Avoid exposure to steep slopes above and terrain features where avalanche debris can concentrate like gullies, benches, and depressions. 

    (1/29/2021) Small dry point releases in steep terrain on Mt. Herman. Photo: Simon Trautman

Avalanche Discussion

The 8-12in inches of snow we’ve received since Sunday is a welcome addition to our firm preexisting snowpack (observation). Strong and shifting winds accompanied this incremental load of cold, low-density snow creating variable loading patterns. Natural and triggered avalanches to destructive size 2 were reported recently in the adjacent West North Zone. Avalanches occurred on upper elevation, wind-loaded slopes breaking  6-24in deep on the slick underlying crust, as well as within new and wind drifted snow.

Carefully assess the snowpack as you travel, especially on the northern half of the compass where you might find layers of weak faceted snow associated with prominent crusts buried by recent and windblown snow. These layers were the culprit in a couple of recent avalanches in adjacent zones, including one remotely triggered by a skier (observation). Shooting cracks and collapses were also observed, along with sudden and propagating fractures in snowpack tests. There is uncertainty regarding the distribution and sensitivity of these buried weak layers. Evidence exists but is not always easy to find. Weak snow could be above and below the crusts, or not present at all. The variability may be the biggest challenge, so investigate each slope you plan to ride individually, as what you find in one area may be different from the next.

During the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, continue to follow the latest guidance from local, state, and federal health officials. Avoid unnecessary risks that could impact first responders and stress medical resources.  Wear a mask when appropriate, practice social distancing, and consider recreating closer to home.

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