Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Over 2 feet of cold, light density new snow in the mountains is going to see the Sun for the first time today. Southern aspects will be most likely to release natural avalanches!

Wind slabs and Weak layers are showing some signs of improvement...be cautious of wind slabs in upper elevation terrain and early-season obstacles like rocks and logs at mid and low elevations.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Certain
    Size
    1–2

    Today, the snow is going to be heating up, and melting off of the rocks and entraining more light snow with it, creating sizable point releases...You are going to want to stay away from slopes that are getting heated by the Sun, especially steep slopes, above 30 degrees and rocky terrain that faces towards the South.  As the southern aspects heat up, move to cooler aspects or slopes that are not steeper than 30 degrees, or that are not near steep and rocky terrain under direct sunlight.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The winds have started to wind down enough that it is likely that most slabs that have developed early in the week have had just enough time to bond. I would not rule out the possibility of triggering an isolated wind slab in steep terrain above 7,000 feet. Just below ridges and below cornices are the most likely spots to trigger wind slabs.

    Even though most of the winds in the last few days have been out of the South, the snow has been very light in density, and easily transportable...local terrain can influence the direction of loading as well as increase the windspeed and load leeward slopes even though the surrounding winds are light.

Avalanche Discussion

This information is sponsored by CM Backcountry Rental in McCall...thank you for supporting the Payette Avalanche Center!

While avalanche problems are serious, early season conditions/ buried obstacles are still serious threats to Snowmobilers and skiers. Coverage at elevations above 7,000 feet is good enough to allow some travel, but most of the terrain still has a lot of rocks, logs and bushes showing. The snowpack is growing in depth, and weak layers of crusts and facets are showing (rounding) progress towards stabilization.  Our snowpack that formed from October-early December is gone on lower elevation slopes that got hit by a record warmup and Sun.  North aspects are still holding that Oct-Dec snow that is between 1-2 feet near the ground. 

If you are able to ride a steep upper elevation slope, slough management is going to come into play. You may be able to get enough dry loose snow moving with you to become a problem that might knock you down, or send you into places you would rather not go. Snowmobiling off-trail is super high stakes right now with the shallow snow and all of the obstacles needing to be buried....be extra careful.

Recent cold temperatures have helped to break down crusts and deposit some of the best light-density snow that would make most people smile. While our snowpack is trending deeper and stronger, the snowpack is still shallow below 7500 feet and there are a lot of hazards lurking just beneath the surface. Above 7, 500 feet there is around 5 feet of snow on the ground, and in wind loaded terrain some slopes could have around 8-10 feet of snow.   Shallow snow is not only easy to hit obstacles in, but it allows skiers and riders to have more effect on buried weak layers.

Our stability tests have shown moderate failures within the upper 2 feet, but the upper snowpack is soft and lacks propagation potential.  Things are looking good, but allow room for error as there is a lot of variability in our mountains right now.