Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Continued snow and wind loading have created very dangerous avalanche conditions.  Human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely, especially above treeline where we've had significant loading over the last three days.  Avoid traveling on or beneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees today. Any avalanche triggered has the potential to be large enough to injure or bury a person.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Continued snow and wind is building cohesive slabs on the surface over several faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack. The added weight of the new snow over the last three days has greatly stressed the faceted weak layers in the snowpack. The most likely weak layer to trigger a persistent slab avalanche is on buried near-surface facets either just below last Tuesday's storm snow or beneath a hard wind crust from last week's wind events. A persistent slab avalanche that initially fails in this weak layer has a chance to step down into deeper faceted weak layers creating a larger unsurvivable avalanche.

    Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks. You can trigger a persistent slab avalanche from long distances today. Stay off of or underneath slopes that are greater than 30 degrees as we may see avalanches running long distances today.

    Slabs are starting to build and stiffen on the surface over faceted weak layers deeper in the snowpack.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    8 to 12 inches of snow overnight with transportable west winds will continue to add to slabs that have been building over the last 72 hours.  Slabs on the leeward side of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain could be upwards of three feet thick now.  These slabs have formed on a variety of different surfaces from near-surface facets to hard wind packed slabs and may not be bonding well to this older surface. Avoid steep slopes where you find 10 or more inches of new snow. 

    A smaller storm slab avalanche failing in the new snow has the potential of stepping down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  Look for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks on the surface and wind drifted pillows.  

    Wind loaded slope near treeline on an E aspect that collapsed with shooting cracks when we approached the slope on 1/24.

Avalanche Discussion

It's day 3 of a four-day weather event and storm totals are starting to add up.  In the last 72 hours, we've picked up 12 to 20 inches of snow with 1 to 1.8" of snow water equivalent (SWE). Lingering orographic snow showers with continued moderate west winds are in the forecast today before another storm system approaches our mountains tonight into Tuesday.  

Early reports this morning are of some large natural avalanches that ran sometime last night with the intense 1 to 2 inch an hour snowfall rates.  Over the last two days, loud thundering collapses and propagating cracks have been widespread in travels. On small steep test slopes, we've been able to get these slopes to avalanche oftentimes triggering these slides from a distance. Our snowpack has been teetering on a tipping point as fresh snow and wind has been loading and stressing the faceted persistent weak layers. With a pretty good pulse of snow last night, transportable wind speeds and additional snowfall we've increased the avalanche danger above treeline to high where human-triggered avalanches are very likely and travel in this terrain is not recommended.  The avalanche danger has also increased to considerable below treeline, where the shallow weak snowpack now has 1 to 2 foot thick cohesive slabs on top of incredibly weak facets.  Avalanches below treeline will be smaller than what you'll find at higher elevations, but can still be dangerous taking you into natural obstacles or sweeping you into terrain traps.   

A very weak faceted snowpack is going to struggle to the added weight of the new snow and wind loading over the last three days.  There are several faceted weak layers of concern below 1 to 3 foot cohesive slabs. If you are getting out today, it doesn't have to be overly complicated, keep it simple and stick to terrain less than 30 degrees that isn't in an avalanche path runout with steep slopes above. There's a possibility that you may be able to remotely trigger a large avalanche from the flats below.  Today is not the day to chase powder and push into steep terrain. With more snow in the forecast today into Tuesday, it's going to be a while before avalanche conditions ease.   

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