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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 9th, 2014–Apr 10th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

How does warming and solar radiation influence the snowpack? How do I manage cornice problems? Check out the new Forecaster Blog.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

An upper level ridge will keep the region fairly dry with a mix of sun and cloud through the forecast period. Thursday: Cloudy. Ridgetop winds light from the SW. Freezing levels near 1300 m. Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries. Ridgetop winds moderate from the West. Freezing levels rising to 1400 m.Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures rising to 6.0 degrees. Ridgetop winds light from the West. Freezing levels rising to 2100 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, numerous loose wet avalanches occurred  up to size 2.5 on all aspects and elevations . Cornices have become weak and some have failed triggering storm slabs up to size 2 on slopes below.  Warming and sunshine may be the name of the game in the forecast period. Natural cornice failure and loose wet avalanches will likely continue. Trip planning, and proper timing will be required to help mitigate these avalanche problems.

Snowpack Summary

A melt-freeze crust exists on all aspects up to 2200 m, and dryer snow can be found on high northerly aspects. The recent warmer temperatures have helped to strengthen and settle the upper snowpack, especially on solar aspects. Isolated wind slabs have formed and are sensitive to rider triggers, especially on slopes with a buried crust. Large sagging cornices are looming over slopes and pose a threat, especially when the sun comes out.Snowpack tests are producing moderate shears down 15 cm failing on surface hoar below the early April crust and hard resistant planar shears on the late March crust. Several persistent weak layers exist lower in the snowpack. The mid-March interface down 80 -110 cm, the early-March layer is down about 100-150 cm and the early February layer is now down close to 200 cm. These layers are largely dormant at this time; however, they should remain on your radar as we begin to transition into a warm-up with minimal overnight refreeze and intense solar output.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.