Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Feb 16 – 17, 2015Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 12 years ago

Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

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Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Large cornices will become weaker with forecast warming and solar radiation. Use extra caution on or below ridge crests.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Freezing levels may climb as high as 3500m on Tuesday. The warm temperatures, combined with solar radiation, will increase the chances of loose wet avalanches. Watch for increased reactivity in steep, sun-exposed terrain.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

A dry ridge of high pressure will bring mainly clear skies for Tuesday. On Wednesday the ridge will flatten-out allowing for a weak pacific system to bring light snowfall for Wednesday and Thursday. Ridgetop winds are forecast to be light from the northwest on Tuesday, and then become strong and southwesterly with Wednesday's system. Freezing levels will shoot to about 3500m on Tuesday, and then drop to about 1500m on Wednesday and Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

With continued warming, loose wet avalanches and cornice failures will remain the primary concern, particularly on steeper, sun-exposed slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Light amounts of cold, lower density snow overlie a thick hard crust on high, north-facing terrain. Below about 2000m there is no snow on the crust and surface runnels show the effect of recent rain showers. Sun-exposed slopes have become moist, or wet with recent daytime warming and solar radiation, while cornices are reported to be large and potentially fragile. Below the surface crust, the snow is still moist; however, the mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-consolidated. Most of the terrain below treeline is below threshold for avalanche activity.

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