Weather intensity is uncertain for Thursday night and Friday. If snowfall amounts are heavy or if overnight winds are strong, avalanche danger ratings may go to High.
Confidence
Fair - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain
Weather Forecast
Overnight Thursday and Friday: Moderate snowfall on Thursday tapering-off to light on Friday with the possibility of ongoing moderate snowfall in the south of the region / Moderate to locally strong southeast winds / Freezing level at surfaceSaturday: Light snowfall with moderate accumulations in the south of the region / Light to moderate southeast winds / Freezing level at surfaceSunday: Light snowfall / Light southeast winds / Freezing level at surface
Avalanche Summary
Explosives control on Thursday produced storm/windslab avalanches to size 2. I would expect ongoing wind/storm slab avalanches if snowfall and wind persist.
Snowpack Summary
The region has received an impressive amount of new snow in recent days. The snowfall was accompanied by consistently strong to extreme winds that have since backed off leaving significant amounts of lower density snow over deeper windslabs.A couple of layers of surface hoar were buried last week in some areas. Test results on the surface hoar suggest an improving bond. A deeper layer of surface hoar from late November is now well over a metre down and no activity has been reported on this layer either. In general, the mid-pack is reported to be well settled and strong. The early November crust/facet combination near the base of the snowpack seems to be dormant. Triggering one of these persistent weak layers has become unlikely; however, the consequences would be significant.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.