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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2015–Jan 23rd, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

The avalanche danger should increase at Hurricane by Friday afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

West flow and an atmospheric river (aka the Pineapple Express) of warm front moisture will begin moving over the upper ridge and to the Northwest on Friday. Rain or snow should become moderate to heavy mainly in the Olympics and north to central Cascades by Friday afternoon and continue Friday night with rising snow levels.

Loose wet and and wet slab avalanches will be listed as the avalanche problems in all areas west of the crest including the Olympics on Friday. At Hurricane these problems should be limited to slopes holding significant recent snowfall.

Often loose wet avalanches occur just prior to wet slab avalanches. Avoid steep slopes if you are in increasing heavy rain and start to see wet snow deeper than a few inches or increasing natural pinwheels or rollerballs. The avalanche danger should continue to increase Friday night.

There is some uncertainty in this forecast. If the heaviest rain occurs Friday night then the greater avalanche danger may also occur Friday night.

Snowpack Discussion

Snow on the back end of the last storm Sunday and Monday was about 7 inches at Hurricane.

NWAC pro-observer Katy Reid was at Hurricane on Sunday. She mainly reported poor coverage and shallow new snow well bonded to previous melt form snow. She also reported stable melt form layers in the mid and base pack where it existed. Here is her video from Sunday on our YouTube Channel.

A weak dissipating front is moving across the Olympics and Cascades on Thursday. Snow and rain amounts are expected to be light and not have a great effect on snow conditions.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.