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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 1st, 2020–Nov 2nd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Welcome back to a new avalanche season! Snowpack depths are deep enough in the alpine to produce large avalanches. Meanwhile, below treeline snow depths are thin and travel is still rugged. Ease into the season, avoid slamming into rocks, trees, etc!

Weather Forecast

Warm and no snow for the next two days, then be ready for 3-4 days of stormy weather.

Today: nil precip, Alp high of +4*C, fzl rising to 3700m, light SW winds

Mon: nil precip, mod SW winds, Alp high +3*C, fzl rising to 3900m

Tues: 15cm snow, mod SW winds, Alp high of 0*C, fzl at 1800m

Wed: 30cm snow, mod/strong SW winds, fzl near 2200m 

Snowpack Summary

A healthy 1.5+m snowpack in the alpine rapidly shrinks to 30-40cm at 1300m. A supportive rain crust, found up to 2200m, is ~30cm below the surface near treeline elevations. Expect to find variable wind slabs on lee alpine and treeline features, with scouring to near ground on windward slopes. Lots of rocks, trees, and open creeks below treeline.

Avalanche Summary

A major early-season cycle Thursday/Friday saw numerous avalanches off Tupper, Macdonald, and the N side of Cheops to sz 3 ripping from alpine start zones and making it to valley bottom. Cooler temps curtailed activity yesterday, but a forecasted temp spike today could see avalanche activity resume.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.