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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2022–Feb 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Don't rely on surface conditions for clues to where the tricky persistent problem still exists. Open slopes at treeline are the most concerning, where buried surface hoar may be preserved. 

Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are clear signs of an unstable snowpack. 

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

The cold front moves out of the region tonight, light flurries continue Tuesday. A high pressure system builds Wednesday, bringing mostly dry conditions and scattered cloud.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy with flurries, trace to 3 cm overnight. Light to moderate north/nor'west winds and freezing levels around 500 m.

TUESDAY: Chance of flurries with moderate nor'west winds strengthening over the day. A mix of sun and cloud with freezing levels reaching 1500m. Alpine high -2. 

WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate nor'west winds, freezing levels reach 1500m, alpine high of -2. 

THURSDAY: A mix of and cloud. Strong nor'west winds. Freezing levels rise toward 2000 m over the day. Alpine high of +2. 

Avalanche Summary

Last weeks warming trend and sun produced naturally triggered loose wet avalanches to size 2. 

As expected, persistent slab avalanche activity also increased as a result of the warmer temperatures. Size 1 - 3 slab avalanches were naturally and human triggered over the last week, on the late January surface hoar layer. Activity occurred on all aspects at treeline elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Exposed terrain at alpine and treeline elevations holds dense wind effected surfaces from westerly winds. Sheltered areas and lower elevations have a widespread melt freeze crust and surface hoar.

The late January interface is buried 20-40 cm deep, and consists of a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects extending into the alpine. Surface hoar sits above the crust in sheltered areas at treeline and below. This layer is still producing human triggered avalanches and propagation-likely test results. 

The mid January interface is buried 40-70 cm deep, and consists of a crust, facets, and surface hoar. The snowpack below is well consolidated, with the early December crust/facet persistent weak layer buried 100-200 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant. We expect this layer to become active later this season, check out the forecaster blog for more information.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.