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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 17th, 2022–Feb 18th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Heavy, wet snow is prone to loose wet slides in steep terrain. If you get high enough to find dry snow, watch for storm slabs to be especially reactive in wind-loaded terrain features.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: Snowfall 5-15 cm, strong west wind, high of +2, freezing level 1100 m.

Friday: Snowfall 5-15 cm, strong, southwest wind, high of +2, freezing level 1200 m.

Saturday: 10-15 cm overnight then flurries, moderate west wind, high of -1, freezing level 800 m.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud, light, northwest wind, high of -2, freezing level 600 m.

Avalanche Summary

Preliminary reports from the storm include widespread natural loose wet activity averaging size 1 around Shames. Further north, industrial operators have reported storm slabs running naturally size 1-1.5 and explosive triggered size 2.

 

Snowpack Summary

Ongoing snowfall amid strong wind has accumulated 20-40 cm of heavy, moist new and recent snow over a thick rain crust at all elevations. The 10-30 cm thick rain crust makes human triggering of avalanches on weak layers deeper in the snowpack very unlikely.

However, cornices overhead are a primary concern during sunny, warm, or windy conditions. Cornice failures can trigger very large persistent slab avalanches that would otherwise be difficult to human trigger.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.