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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2022–Mar 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

 Keep an eye on the snow surface. As the freezing level rises and the snow surface becomes moist wet loose avalanches will increase in size and likelihood. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: around 10 mm of precipitation likely falling as rain at all elevations. Freezing levels around 2200 m. Moderate to strong southerly winds. 

Tuesday: stormy with up to 10mm of precipitation likely falling as rain at all elevations. Strong south winds. Freezing level around 2500 m.

Wednesday: Clearing throughout the day. Possibility of some light flurries bringing 5 cm of new snow at higher elevations. Freezing level falling to 1500 m. Strong southerly winds.

Thursday: Sunny with noe new snow expected. Freezing levels around 1400 m. Light southeast winds.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday ski cutting produced wind slab avalanches up to size two. These avalanches were triggered at treeline on north aspects. We suspect that some wind slab avalanches could still be triggered in the alpine on Tuesday but most avalanche activity will be wet loose.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs could be found at higher elevations on northerly aspects. As the freezing levels rise moist snow could be observed on all aspects and elevations. .

Below treeline, snowpack depths are below threshold for avalanches in many areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.