Avalanche Forecast

We’re moving into a dryer period that is expected to be with us for the foreseeable future. Freezing levels look very reasonable for the middle of February and there is a lot of sun in the forecast Sunday through Wednesday.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 1000 m, moderate to strong northwest wind, trace of snow possible.

SUNDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level around 800 m, moderate northwest wind, trace of snow possible.

MONDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level around 700 m, light variable wind, no significant precipitation expected.

TUESDAY: Clear skies, freezing level rising to about 1200 m, light variable wind wind, no significant precipitation expected.

Widespread small avalanches were reported Saturday in this MIN report as storm slabs slid on the crust.

On February 8th a small skier triggered slab avalanche on the rain crust was reported (see this MIN report). The bond at this interface appears to be strengthening over time.

20 to 30 cm of storm snow rests on a variety of wind affected surfaces in the alpine, dense, well settled snow at lower elevations, and a sun crust on solar aspects. There may be isolated pocket of surface hoar too. Continued wind and warmer temperatures Sunday will likely encourage slab development within the new snow.

A thick rain crust sits 50-60 cm below the surface. The snowpack below consists of moist to wet snow and is well settled. Snowpack depths are in the range of 200-250 cm around the peaks of the North Shore mountains (1400 m), tapering quickly with elevation to almost nothing below 1000 m.

• Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.