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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 13th, 2024–Mar 14th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Avoid Avalanche Terrain.

Solar input and rapidly rising freezing levels will likely result in a widespread natural avalanche cycle.

Check out our latest blog about the forecasted warming.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

As freezing levels rise we expect avalanche activity to increase in both size and frequency.

On Sunday, a sledder accidentally triggered a size 2.5 wind slab avalanche on a west aspect at 1580 m on Mt Beadnell, commonly referred to as the Adrian riding area. This resulted in a critical burial, serious injuries, and helicopter evacuation.

Snowpack Summary

As the sun comes out and freezing levels rise the snow surface will become moist or wet at all elevations and on all aspects.

80 to 120 cm of recent snow has been redistributed by southerly winds.  This new snow sits over a layer of softer, faceted snow which itself overlies a crust on all but high north aspects. Large surface hoar grains have been observed just below the storm snow in the Mt Cain area. The bond at this interface is likely improving under the weight of the recent snow but it is not yet reliable. It has produced recent destructive avalanches.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

A mix of clear skies and cloud. 15 to 30 km/h southwest alpine wind. Freezing level falling to 1100 m.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud. 15 to 30 km/h west alpine wind. Freezing level rising to 3400 m.

Friday

Mostly sunny. 10 to 20 km/h northwest alpine wind. Freezing level around 3400 m.

Saturday

Sunny. 25 to 40 km/h southeast alpine wind. Freezing level around 3400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
  • Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.