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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 3rd, 2022–Feb 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

The hazard will ramp up through out the day tomorrow as new snow piles up, and winds and temperatures increase.

Be increasingly conservative in your decision making as the day progresses.

Weather Forecast

A low pressure system drives a warm front our way, giving snowfall Friday.

Tonight: Flurries (5cm). Alpine low -9*C. Moderate SW ridgetop winds

Fri: Snow (15-20cm during the day, with 10cm more overnight). High -7*C. Strong SW wind

Sat: Isolated flurries. Low -9*C, High -6*C. Strong W wind

Sun: Mix of sun and cloud. Low -7*C, High -2*C. Mod SW wind

Snowpack Summary

Up to 25cm of new snow by Friday PM, combined with strong SW wind, will load up lee features with fresh storm slabs. This brings the total to 40-70cm on the drought interfaces from Jan 29th - surface hoar (5-15mm) on sheltered/shady slopes, wind effect in exposed areas, and a suncrust on solar aspects. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5-2.5m.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, a field crew at Fidelity had a significant whumpf.

Wednesday, avalanche control in Cougar Corner and on Abott produced several size 2 slab avalanches.

Tuesday, a crew on Abbott easily ski cut sz 1-1.5 slab avalanches on convex rolls.

On Monday, natural activity was widespread at all elevations (storm slabs failing on the Jan 29th layer).

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.