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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2024–Jan 20th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Warming temps, new snow and wind are the perfect recipe for fresh slab formation.

Continue to re-evaluate conditions as you gain elevation and transition into open terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Thursday; there was a close call when a skier triggered a size 1.5 avalanche on the S/SW side of Cheops and was able to self arrest; and a skier triggered slab avalanche on a S facing moraine.

Wednesday there was a widespread natural cycle in the highway corridor, triggered by wind.

Tuesday, there was a skier triggered avalanche on the W Side of Cheops.

Early in the week, there were a few skier triggered avalanches reported.

*All skier triggered avalanches failed on a suncrust.

Snowpack Summary

15-25cms of recent storm snow overlies variable wind slabs/wind effect in open terrain, and settling facetted snow in sheltered areas below treeline.

A sun crust, down 40-55cm, and most prominent at treeline, has been the failure plane for isolated large skier triggered avalanches recently.

Below 2100m there is decomposing crust down 70-80cm (from Dec 5th/6th).

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down 90-120cm and is decomposing.

Weather Summary

Flurries this weekend, as a fading front dribbles inland. Expect a temperature inversion, as heavy cold air is slowly pushed out.

Tonight: Scattered flurries (5cm). Low -5°C. Light South ridgetop wind.

Sat: Isolated flurries. High -1°C. Freezing level (Fzl) 1800m. Light SW wind.

Sun: Scatered flurries (4cm). Low -4°C, High -2°C. Fzl 1700m. Light SW wind.

Mon: Isolated flurries. Low -6°C, High -3°C. Light S wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.