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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 27th, 2023–Dec 28th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Powell River, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sky Pilot.

Give the new snow time to bond. Heavy snowfall, wind, and a buried weak layer warrant conservative terrain choices on Thursday.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Tuesday saw widespread size 2 storm and wind slab avalanches. There were also notable reports of larger (size 2.5 to 3) human-triggered slabs northeast of Pemberton and in the Spearhead range. These avalanches involved 50 to 100 cm deep persistent weak layers that resulted in wide propagations and, in some cases, remote triggering.

We expect a natural avalanche cycle on Wednesday night, and then into Thursday both storm and persistent slabs will be a concern.

Snowpack Summary

Snow, rain, and wind are reshaping snow surfaces. 20 to 40 cm of new snow on Thursday will add to the 50 to 100 cm of recent wind-affected snow at upper elevations. Treeline and below treeline elevations received more rain, leading to smaller snow totals. The recent snow sits above a layer of poorly bonded crusts and surface hoar, which has shown sensitivity to human triggers and snowpack tests. With ongoing rapid changes to the weather, it is uncertain how long this layer will remain a problem.

The lower snowpack is strong and bonded and total snow depths remain below average.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with 15 to 25 cm of snow above 1200 m (rain below), alpine wind south 60 to 90 km/h, treeline temperature near -1 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with 10 to 20 cm of snow above 1400 m (primarily in the morning then easing in the afternoon), alpine wind south 30 to 50 km/h, treeline temperature around 0 °C, freezing level climbing to 1700 m in the afternoon.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with 1 to 3 cm of snow, alpine wind southeast 50 to 70 km/h, treeline temperature around +2 °C with freezing level climbing to 2200 m.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with 2 to 8 cm of snow, alpine wind south 50 km/h, treeline temperature around 0 °C with freezing level dropping to 1800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • Avoid the alpine during periods of heavy loading from new snow wind and/or rain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.