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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2021–Jan 5th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Approach the Alpine with caution as wind slabs are widespread. Some large recent avalanches are a sign that the snowpack needs more time to heal.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Temperatures are expected to cool off during the day down to -10c with strong SW winds. Expect 1-5cm of snow.

Wednesday: Maybe another 5cm of snow but continued strong winds.

Avalanche Summary

Murray Creek: One size 2, west aspect around 2300m that looked like it occurred sometime on Sunday and One size 3, north aspect that appeared to have occurred this last Saturday or Sunday. These avalanches are a good reminder that the snowpack needs to settle a little longer before exposing oneself to bigger terrain.

Snowpack Summary

This last weekend brought us up to 25cm of snow along with strong winds. The result is widespread wind slabs in the Alpine and isolated areas of tree line. There are now several generations of wind slabs in the upper snowpack. As you transition from tree line to the alpine, take the time to dig and evaluate what is going on with the snowpack. We have a generally strong mid pack that sits overtop of the November 5 crust. Our greatest concern with the Nov. crust is in shallow areas where the facets around the crust are more pronounced. Cornices are growing fast so it is a good time to give them lots of space.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.