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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2021–Mar 17th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Avalanche hazard will rise with daytime warming and solar input. Time your day to move off of slopes before they get moist or slushy and steer clear of overhead hazards like cornices.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels. Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing, light variable wind, alpine low -8 C, freezing level to valley bottom.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny, light to moderate south west wind, alpine high +4 C, freezing level 2300 m.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny, light to moderate southerly wind, alpine high +7, freezing level 2400 m.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloud, flurries, moderate to strong south west wind, alpine high -1, freezing level 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday there were size 1 wet loose avalanches reported in the backcountry near Castle. There were wet loose avalanches size 1-2 from throughout the region out of southerly alpine terrain reported over the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

The alpine may be wind affected in open areas. Snow on all solar aspects and lower elevation bands will start out crusty but may start to get moist by mid morning. Reports suggest snow on northerly terrain above 1600 m has so far remained dry. Cornices are large and looming, and glide cracks are increasing in size...both should be considered unpredictable and given a wide berth.

Around 30 to 60 cm of snow sits above a layer of sugary faceted grains that were buried in mid-February. In some areas, there may be an old layer of feathery surface hoar or facets from late January down 50 to 80 cm deep. There have been no reported avalanches on either of these layers in the region since March 9th in the Crowsnest, but there is always lingering concern that consecutive days in a row of warm temperatures may increase the reactivity of deeper weak layers in isolated areas.

The mid pack is firm and well settled. Some faceted snow and a decomposing melt-freeze crust can be found near the base of the snowpack. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin, rocky, or variable snowpack.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.