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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2023–Jan 5th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Danger remains elevated as buried weak layers continue to produce large and unnerving avalanches. Stick to small and supported terrain features. Be cautious of areas where the snowpack depth changes rapidly, such as thin and rocky start zones.

Remember that small avalanches may step down to deeper weak layers as southerly winds are expected to build fresh wind slabs.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous large to very large (size 2 to 3) avalanches have been naturally and human triggered over the last week, failing on the weak layers described in the Snowpack Summary, 70 to 200 cm deep. Activity was mostly reported between 1800 m and 2500 m elevation and on all aspects. Check out this recent MIN.

These avalanches continue to indicate that these buried weak layers remain reactive, and are capable of producing large consequential avalanches. Many of these human-triggered avalanches were a surprise to the individuals triggering them.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

30-50 cm of low density snow sits at the surface of the snowpack. As southerly winds increase expect wind slabs to build in north facing terrain. New wind slabs may sit over a layer of reactive surface hoar and or crust.

The upper snowpack is generally settled and bonded well, however buried weak layers continue to be a concern, with large and surprising (remote or accidental triggered) avalanche activity reported throughout the last week.

A weak layer of crust, facets and/or surface hoar buried just before Christmas is buried 40-70 cm deep. The lower snowpack is generally weak and facetted with a weak layer of large facets from mid November near the bottom.

Snowpack depths are roughly 150 to 200 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Increasing cloud with moderate southerly winds developing. No snowfall expected. Freezing level below valley bottom.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with moderate to strong southerly winds. Freezing levels remain below 500 m, alpine highs of -7 °C expected. Scattered flurries possible

Friday

Mostly cloudy. Strong southerly winds ease back to moderate. Light snowfall brings up to 5 cm. Freezing levels peak around 800 m. Alpine highs of -4 °C.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with moderate southerly winds. Scattered flurries continue. Freezing levels peak around 800 m. Alpine highs of -4 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Choose simple, low-angle, well supported terrain without convexities.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.