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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2023–Feb 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

If you venture into the alpine with the clear weather, be aware that old wind slabs linger and new ones could be forming . Cornices are large in some areas and could become active when it warms up in the afternoons. Deeper layers should still be on your mind outside the Lizard Range.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches of note have been reported in the area over the last few days.

Dry Loose avalanches to size 1 were reported from steep, confined upper elevation features.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10 cm of new snow filled with graupel sits on top of previously wind impacted snow. The middle of the snowpack is well consolidated and sits on a thick crust. The bottom of the snowpack still consists of weak, sugary crystals that are slowly gaining strength in areas with a deeper snowpack.

Cornices continue to grow with the wind.

Deep persistent slab avalanches should still be on your radar in areas outside of the Lizard Range such as the Bull River, Elkford, and the Flathead.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Clear. Winds from the southwest at 15 km/h. Temperature dipping down to -10˚C.

Thursday

Clear. Winds from the southwest at 20 km/h. Temperature -10˚C in the morning rising to -3˚C in the afternoon. Solar effect is likely.

Friday

Clouds returning. Flurries delivering 2 - 4 cm of snow. Winds from the southwest at 20 km/h

Saturday

Cloudy. 5 cm of new snow. Winds from the southwest at 20 km/h. Temperature -4˚C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.
  • Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.