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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 19th, 2019–Dec 22nd, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Storm's a comin'!!!! Heavy snow and/or rain, extreme winds, and rapid warming will lead to a widespread avalanche cycle. This is a great weekend to avoid avalanche terrain by sitting in front of a warm fire.

Weather Forecast

An incoming storm will bring extreme southwest winds, warm temperatures and heavy precipitation peaking on Friday. Freezing levels are somewhat uncertain but will likely be between 1700m and  2000m, bringing rain to the valley bottoms. Precipitation amounts will vary across the park, with some models calling for upwards of 70cm at Akamina Pass.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will be falling on variable wind affected surfaces from extreme west winds. A weak crust facet combo formed in November is down 60cm, and additional crust/facet layers formed in October form the bottom of the snowpack. These are less of a problem in deeper snowpack areas along the divide, but may be overloaded with incoming snow.

Avalanche Summary

No recent natural activity has been observed but this will change rapidly with the incoming precipitation and wind.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.