Stay alert to the many changes in the snowpack that the weather will bring in the next few days. Conditions vary greatly with aspect and elevation.
Weather Forecast
Clear skies with high freezing level forecast for Tuesday. A series of systems that extends through the weekend beings with Light precipitation begins overnight Tuesday. Freezing levels reaching near 1700m Wednesday. Moderate precipitation and some cooling for Thursday. With a return to a westerly flow increased wind can be expected for the period.
Snowpack Summary
Continued small amounts of precip with little to no wind have added to the storm slabs over the 0314 interface now 40 to 60 cm deep. Crusts have formed on solar slopes. The 0314 interface is a rain crust that extends to around 2000m. Another rain crust below it is thinner but extends to 2300m and will likely limit activity from the Feb Facet layer.
Avalanche Summary
During this cold and calm period, Loose Dry Avalanches have been seen out of steep terrain for the last few days. Today, a small cycle of loose wet avalanches occurred with intense solar heating despite relatively cool air temperatures. Temperatures are expected to spike Tuesday with clear skies: expect an increase in avalanche activity to occur.
Confidence
Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.