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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2015–Feb 8th, 2015

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Hazard is on the rise however weather forecasts remain uncertain with respect to freezing levels and precip quantities. Watch the weather closely as you plan your trip!

Weather Forecast

Models are just starting to agree with moderate to heavy precip through Saturday morning and light precip continuing through Sunday. Freezing levels however hold some uncertainty: they could reach 2500m but have held at 2000m right now. Fingers crossed! Moderate SW winds should continue for the period with strong winds possible Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Rain below 1900m. Steady snowfall Thursday built a 10-15cm storm slab above the Jan 31 crusts (that extend everywhere except shaded aspects above 2300m) while gusty SW winds blow this new snow into slabs 40cm thick in lee TL and ALP features. Above 2000m on the shaded aspects concern for the Dec facets and crust layer down 40 to 80cm remain.

Avalanche Summary

Small slabs of snow failing between skier's tracks were the only indication seen while skiing today that there may be trouble ahead with the bond of the new snow to the crust.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Friday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.