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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2018–Feb 17th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Dont be in big terrain that hasnt previously avalanched. Sheltered areas have good skiing but we need some snow for a good re-set.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Forecasts are calling for 5-10cm of new snow over the next 24hrs with generally light NW winds.  Temperatures will be cool on Saturday and then FRIGID on Sunday!  Dress warm!

Avalanche Summary

Its hard to tell whats new and older as strong winds are filling in the fracture lines quickly.  Of note, the Tryst Gully (commonly used after leaving tryst) has recently slid sz 2.5 with debris 2-4m deep in places.  Some people had been using this gully as an approach earlier this winter and this avalanche is a sobering reminder of how much of a terrain trap this piece of terrain is.  Just because you have (or someone else has) gone one way before, doesn't mean its safe. 

Snowpack Summary

Light flurries throughout the day and overnight but only close to 5cm of accumulations.  Moderate westerly winds continued building on the windslabs that previously existed.  Alpine areas have extensive windslabs from the strong winds earlier in the week.  Its not uncommon to find a drummy feeling as you approach more open terrain.  At treeline the windslabs are more specific in nature such as along ridgelines and in gullies.  A few prominent weak layers still exist at the base of the snowpack.  The Dec 15th interface down 140cm and the January surface hoar layers down 100cm.  Test resulst are still in the hard rnage on these layers but they are highly variable.  Use caution in any areas that have not previously slid and minimize your exposure to overhead terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.