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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 22nd, 2019–Nov 23rd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

This weekend's storm will start to cover many of the rocks in the mountains. Start off conservatively and assess the bonding within the snowpack. The most likely terrain to trigger an avalanche is where the ground surface appears smooth.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy skies with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, moderate to strong west wind, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, moderate to strong west wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 1400 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with morning snowfall, accumulation 20 to 30 cm, moderate to strong west wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1100 m.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, light west wind, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level 700 m.

Avalanche Summary

Observations are very limited right now, with recreationists starting to get into the mountains and operations opening soon. We haven't received any reports of recent avalanche activity. The new snow coming this weekend may not bond well to the underlying snow at higher elevations. The most likely place to trigger a large avalanche would be where the ground is smooth, such as on glaciers, rock slabs, scree slopes, or grassy slopes.

If you see anything while out in the field, please consider sharing that information with us and fellow recreationists via the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

There is high variability of snow accumulation in the mountains. Below about 1500 m there is presently no snow. At alpine elevations, you may find between about 50 and 100 cm of snow. Snowfall this weekend will accumulate and may not bond well to the underlying snow.

What varies dramatically is the ground roughness -- areas with a lot of ground roughness (for example big boulders, trees) will mean the snow is discontinuous and make it difficult to recreate in but also more difficult to trigger avalanches. Areas with smooth ground (for example glaciers, scree or grass slopes, rock slabs) may be better for recreating on, but the smooth ground is where avalanche activity is the most likely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.