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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 22nd, 2019–Apr 23rd, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Forecast snow with moderate SW winds will continue loading recent storm slabs. At and below treeline watch for an early crust break down. First bear observations this morning near Rogers Pass.

Weather Forecast

SW moderate to strong winds will usher in the next frontal system poised to bring around 15cm of snow to the alpine by Tuesday morning. Freezing level should rise to 2300m today, lowering to 1800m tonight. Below treeline elevations will see this precipitation in the form of rain. Cloudy with sunny breaks for and isolated flurries for Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

A surface crust exists this morning, but expect it to break down by midday. 35 mm of precipitation fell Thurs-Fri, falling primarily as rain up to ~1900 m and accompanied by mod to strong S'ly winds. The snowpack is isothermal BTL and thin areas at TL. Dry snow can still be found on Northerly aspects in the high alpine.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches occurred during and after the rain event on Friday. Most of the Cheops north facing pathes ran on April 19th. April 20 skiers remote triggered a size 2.5 slab on the skiers far left of the headwall of Youngs Peak in the afternoon. The slab was 80cm deep, 100m wide and ran 250m.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.