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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2017–Dec 15th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Minimal avalanche activity has inspired confidence in the snowpack. 

Weather Forecast

Alpine temperatures will cool as the inversion conditions come to an end.  Expecting to see overcast conditions with flurries that might amount to 8 cm by Sunday.  Westerly winds will be light but will build on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

There is a well settled snowpack in most locations. Widespread wind effected snow in the alpine with minimal ski penetration. The Halloween, Oct. 31 crust sits in the lower half of the snowpack with faceted crystals above and below; found between 2200 - 2900m.

Avalanche Summary

An older (+48hr) slab avalanche was reported in the Icefields are on a South aspect at 2850 m that started 20 cm deep and then stepped down to a crust 30 cm below.  The slope angle was ~40 deg. and the size was 2.5.  It was likely a solar trigger avalanche.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable on Friday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.